Time-varying impact of pandemics on global output growth

Gupta, Rangan and Sheng, Xin and Balcilar, Mehmet and Ji, Qiang (2020) Time-varying impact of pandemics on global output growth. Finance Research Letters, 41. p. 101823. ISSN 1544-6123

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Official URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.frl.2020.101823


This paper analyses the dynamic impact of uncertainty due to global pandemics (SARS, H5N1, H1N1, MERS, Ebola, and COVID-19) on global output growth, using a TVP-SVAR model. We find that the negative effect of the coronavirus on the growth rate of output is unprecedented, with the emerging markets being the worst hit. We also find that since 2016, the comovement among the growth rates has increased significantly. Our results imply that policymakers would need to undertake massive expansionary policies, but it is also important to pursue well-coordinated policy decisions across the economic blocs.

Item Type: Journal Article
Keywords: Pandemics, Uncertainty, Output growth, TVP-SVAR, COVID-19
Faculty: COVID-19 Research Collection
Faculty of Business & Law
SWORD Depositor: Symplectic User
Depositing User: Symplectic User
Date Deposited: 06 Nov 2020 11:16
Last Modified: 29 Oct 2021 01:02
URI: https://arro.anglia.ac.uk/id/eprint/706026

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