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Predicting internet commercial connectivity wars: The impact of trust and operators’ asymmetry
journal contribution
posted on 2023-07-26, 14:10 authored by Alessio D’Ignazio, Emanuele GiovannettiEarly studies on forecasting the growth of the Internet suggested that its evolution could not be predicted as being simply the result of a random network formation process. Recent evidence has shown that commercial connectivity goes through cycles, due to providers regularly disconnecting their customers. We model these cycles as being a result of the providers’ limited ability to monitor their customers’ contractual compliance. Based on twelve years of quarterly observations, we estimate the impacts of key covariates on the probability of starting a connectivity war. Following a choice model approach, we use different econometric specifications to test the model implications. Our results predict that the asymmetry between customers and providers, which increases the incentives to abuse connectivity, and the history of past connections, which affects mutual trust and information asymmetries, are the main factors in determining the probability of providers starting a connectivity war, thus helping to explain the cycles that are observed in Internet connectivity.
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Refereed
- Yes
Volume
31Issue number
4Page range
1127-1137Publication title
International Journal of ForecastingISSN
0169-2070External DOI
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ElsevierLanguage
- other
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2017-09-26Legacy creation date
2017-09-20Legacy Faculty/School/Department
ARCHIVED Lord Ashcroft International Business School (until September 2018)Usage metrics
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