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Global food security and food riots – an agent-based modelling approach
journal contribution
posted on 2023-08-30, 14:47 authored by Davide Natalini, Giangiacomo Bravo, Aled JonesDue to negative consequences of climate change for agriculture and food production shocks affecting different areas of the world, the past two decades saw the conditions of global food security increasingly worsen. This has resulted in negative consequences for the world economy, partly causing international food price spikes and social upheavals. In this paper we present statistical findings along with a preliminary version of an original agent-based model called the Dawe Global Security Model that simulates the global food market and the political fragility of countries. The model simulates the effects of food insecurity on international food prices and how these, coupled with national political fragility and international food trade can, in turn, increase the probability of food riots in countries. The agents in the model are the 213 countries of the world whose characteristics reflect empirical data and the international trade of food is also simulated based on real trade partnerships and data. The model has been informed, calibrated and validated using real data and the results of these procedures are presented in the paper. To further test the model we also present the model’s forecasts for the near future in terms of food prices and incidence of food riots. The Dawe Global Security Model can be used to test scenarios on the evolution of shocks to global food production and analyse consequences for food riots. Further developments of the model can include national responses to food crises to investigate how countries can influence the spread of global food crises.
History
Refereed
- Yes
Volume
11Issue number
5Page range
1153-1173Publication title
Food SecurityISSN
1876-4525External DOI
Publisher
SpringerFile version
- Accepted version
Language
- eng
Official URL
Legacy posted date
2017-07-28Legacy creation date
2017-07-11Legacy Faculty/School/Department
ARCHIVED Faculty of Science & Technology (until September 2018)Note
The final publication is available at Springer via: https://doi.org/10.1007/s12571-017-0693-zUsage metrics
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