Magnitude, temporal trends, and projections of the global prevalence of blindness and distance and near vision impairment: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Bourne, Rupert R.A. and Flaxman, Seth R. and Braithwaite, Tasanee and Cicinelli, Maria V. and Das, Aditi and Jonas, Jost B. and Keeffe, Jill and Kempen, John H. and Leasher, Janet and Limburg, Hans and Naidoo, Kovin and Pesudovs, Konrad and Resnikoff, Serge and Silvester, Alex and Stevens, Gretchen A. and Tahhan, Nina and Wong, Tien Y. and Taylor, Hugh R. and Bourne, Rupert and Ackland, Peter and Arditi, Aries and Barkana, Yaniv and Bozkurt, Banu and Braithwaite, Tasanee and Bron, Alain and Budenz, Donald and Cai, Feng and Casson, Robert and Chakravarthy, Usha and Choi, Jaewan and Cicinelli, Maria Vittoria and Congdon, Nathan and Dana, Reza and Dandona, Rakhi and Dandona, Lalit and Das, Aditi and Dekaris, Iva and Del Monte, Monte and Deva, Jenny and Dreer, Laura and Ellwein, Leon and Frazier, Marcela and Frick, Kevin and Friedman, David and Furtado, Joao and Gao, Hua and Gazzard, Gus and George, Ronnie and Gichuhi, Stephen and Gonzalez, Victor and Hammond, Billy and Hartnett, Mary Elizabeth and He, Minguang and Hejtmancik, James and Hirai, Flavio and Huang, John and Ingram, April and Javitt, Jonathan and Jonas, Jost and Joslin, Charlotte and Keeffe, Jill and Kempen, John and Khairallah, Moncef and Khanna, Rohit and Kim, Judy and Lambrou, George and Lansingh, Van Charles and Lanzetta, Paolo and Leasher, Janet and Lim, Jennifer and Limburg, Hans and Mansouri, Kaweh and Mathew, Anu and Morse, Alan and Munoz, Beatriz and Musch, David and Naidoo, Kovin and Nangia, Vinay and Palaiou, Maria and Parodi, Maurizio Battaglia and Pena, Fernando Yaacov and Pesudovs, Konrad and Peto, Tunde and Quigley, Harry and Raju, Murugesan and Ramulu, Pradeep and Resnikoff, Serge and Robin, Alan and Rossetti, Luca and Saaddine, Jinan and Sandar, Mya and Serle, Janet and Shen, Tueng and Shetty, Rajesh and Sieving, Pamela and Silva, Juan Carlos and Silvester, Alex and Sitorus, Rita S. and Stambolian, Dwight and Stevens, Gretchen and Taylor, Hugh and Tejedor, Jaime and Tielsch, James and Tsilimbaris, Miltiadis and van Meurs, Jan and Varma, Rohit and Virgili, Gianni and Volmink, Jimmy and Wang, Ya Xing and Wang, Ning-Li and West, Sheila and Wiedemann, Peter and Wong, Tien and Wormald, Richard and Zheng, Yingfeng (2017) Magnitude, temporal trends, and projections of the global prevalence of blindness and distance and near vision impairment: a systematic review and meta-analysis. The Lancet Global Health. ISSN 2214-109X

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Official URL: https://doi.org/10.1016/S2214-109X(17)30293-0

Abstract

Background Global and regional prevalence estimates for blindness and vision impairment are important for the development of public health policies. We aimed to provide global estimates, trends, and projections of global blindness and vision impairment. Methods We did a systematic review and meta-analysis of population-based datasets relevant to global vision impairment and blindness that were published between 1980 and 2015. We fitted hierarchical models to estimate the prevalence (by age, country, and sex), in 2015, of mild visual impairment (presenting visual acuity worse than 6/12 to 6/18 inclusive), moderate to severe visual impairment (presenting visual acuity worse than 6/18 to 3/60 inclusive), blindness (presenting visual acuity worse than 3/60), and functional presbyopia (defined as presenting near vision worse than N6 or N8 at 40 cm when best-corrected distance visual acuity was better than 6/12). Findings Globally, of the 7·33 billion people alive in 2015, an estimated 36·0 million (80% uncertainty interval [UI] 12·9–65·4) were blind (crude prevalence 0·48%; 80% UI 0·17–0·87; 56% female), 216·6 million (80% UI 98·5–359·1) people had moderate to severe visual impairment (2·95%, 80% UI 1·34–4·89; 55% female), and 188·5 million (80% UI 64·5–350·2) had mild visual impairment (2·57%, 80% UI 0·88–4·77; 54% female). Functional presbyopia affected an estimated 1094·7 million (80% UI 581·1–1686·5) people aged 35 years and older, with 666·7 million (80% UI 364·9–997·6) being aged 50 years or older. The estimated number of blind people increased by 17·6%, from 30·6 million (80% UI 9·9–57·3) in 1990 to 36·0 million (80% UI 12·9–65·4) in 2015. This change was attributable to three factors, namely an increase because of population growth (38·4%), population ageing after accounting for population growth (34·6%), and reduction in age-specific prevalence (–36·7%). The number of people with moderate and severe visual impairment also increased, from 159·9 million (80% UI 68·3–270·0) in 1990 to 216·6 million (80% UI 98·5–359·1) in 2015. Interpretation There is an ongoing reduction in the age-standardised prevalence of blindness and visual impairment, yet the growth and ageing of the world’s population is causing a substantial increase in number of people affected. These observations, plus a very large contribution from uncorrected presbyopia, highlight the need to scale up vision impairment alleviation efforts at all levels.

Item Type: Journal Article
Faculty: Faculty of Medical Science
Depositing User: Ian Walker
Date Deposited: 03 Aug 2017 08:49
Last Modified: 03 Aug 2017 08:51
URI: http://arro.anglia.ac.uk/id/eprint/702051

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